BLIZZARD POSSIBLE

Hello and good Wednesday AKA Thanksgiving Eve everyone! It’s been a quiet last week but now we are tracking the potential for a winter storm / Blizzard to possibly hit the Great Plains states through the Great Lakes this Holiday travel weekend.

We are starting to see a little more consistency among the models. The GFS computer model hits areas of Nebraska and Iowa pretty hard :

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As you can see, it has heavy snowfall falling over eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, Western and northern Iowa and southeast Minnesota with blizzard conditions over these areas as well, especially over eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.

Here is the new version of the GFS:

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As you can see its pretty much the same. Here is the ICON Model:

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And here is the EURO

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As you can see, it is much more different and further south then any other model, which makes this one the outlier.

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MAJOR Winter Storm for the Northeast and the Ohio Valley

Hello everyone and good Tuesday evening! I have been watching for days the potential for a winter storm to hit the northeastern and southeastern United States late Wednesday night through early Saturday morning. This is a storm system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico then turning into a Nor’Easter as it heads up the coast. We still have some cold air in place for parts of the Ohio Valley to start the storm with some heavy accumulations of snow over southeastern Missouri up north through St Louis then over southern and central Illinois to northern Indiana. Here 3-6 inches of snow may fall with isolated heavier totals. Ice looks to be a big concern as well over parts of the southeast and northeastern United States. As the system picks up steam heavy snow should fall over a larger swath of the northeastern United States on Friday. Here is the latest snow and ice accumulation maps:

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Winter Storm for the southern Plains

Hello and happy Sunday everyone! The cold weather continues for the central Plains, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions today and yes, we are talking SNOW for Kansas, Oklahoma, parts of Texas, Missouri and parts of Arkansas. Things are really coming together for totals to be significant in some areas especially over the Texas Panhandle and northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri where 6+ inches of snow may fall. This will be a very wet snow so not much will stick to the main roads but watch out for some slushy snow on the neighborhood roads. Definitely a snow where its mostly on surfaces except concrete due to it still being very early in the season. Here is the latest model projection for tonights snow amounts:

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More snow expected!

Hello and happy Saturday everyone! We are tracking the potential for more accumulating snowfall to hit. This time from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle to parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and northeast. The latest models have been trying to back off with this system lately meaning that the further west it goes, the less snow falls over the northeast United States, also, dont really expect this to be a true Nor’Easter. But the snow over Oklahoma and parts of Kansas will be a spectacle to see since this would be more then they have seen all last winter. That just shows you how snow starved the southern Plains has been lately. This all starts tomorrow night in the southern Plains then is to Maine by next Tuesday night.

This is the EURO model:

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Plowable snow on the way!

Hello and good Wednesday evening everyone! Snow is expected tomorrow and a plowable one at that as well! This is an interesting wave of a storm, one area of snow will fall over Nebraska and another area will fall much further south over Kansas and western Missouri. The models are not handling this system very well so I wouldnt be hocked to see some last minute changes. The model I trust the most at the last minute is the NAM. And here is its official snow totals:

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Accumulating snowfall on the way!

Hello and good Wednesday morning everyone! We are still tracking the potential for accumulating snow to hit the Plains states on Thursday and Thursday night! This is on the heels of MUCH colder weather to hit the Plains first then move eastward through the Ohio Valley later next week. Models are mostly in agreement that the heaviest snow will fall over parts of southwest and central Nebraska with a general 1-3 inches of snow over northern and western Kansas and eastern Nebraska through southern and eastern Iowa. Winds will be light with this system so no real drifting of snow is likely. Below is the GFS model’s snow projection. More updates later!

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Winter Weather Update

Hi everyone! And happy Sunday! Here is another update on the potential for a winter storm to hit the Great Plains this coming Thursday through Friday. This past Saturday just when you think we are starting to see a good trend develop, things start to go haywire in the models and they are all over the place. This is actually pretty normal.

Here is the GFS model’s snowfall accumulations :

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As you can see, not much going on here, maybe a few inches of snow for northern Kansas. The GFS has been going back and forth for days now from either hitting ares of I70 and areas north of I70 in Nebraska and Iowa. Also, looking at the GFS ensembles, there is a lot of different solutions. I have seen several that have no storm, some that hit Nebraska and Iowa with several inches of snow and several members that hit Kansas through Missouri and eastern Iowa with snow.

Here is the latest 0z EURO model :

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After a couple days of hitting Nebraska, northern Kansas and Iowa hard with heavy snow, it has shifted a bit further south into Kansas and Missouri. I guess if there is any consistency right now, It would be a more southerly track through Iowa. But my opinion is since we are still early in the season and we are in early November, this system will eventually move back north a bit. If this were in December or January, I would be buying this southerly track a bit more.

Winter storm next week?

Hi everyone, happy Friday! I know its a long ways out but were going to talk about it anyways. Today I mentioned that we could have some snow and arctic cold on our hands later next week, and the latest EURO and GFS models came out and they are continuing with those thoughts.

The latest EURO model develops quite a storm system starting next Thursday, and this is on the heels of an arctic blast. Temperatures will be more then cold enough for snow if the european model is correct. In fact, it has a wide heavy swath of snow across parts of central and northern Kansas and on either side up into Nebraska it even has 1-4 inches. Temperatures next Thursday on the european model are in the 20s for highs and in the teens and 20s next Friday! Too early to even say its a for sure thing but I have been keeping an eye on this for a while. The GFS computer model has a very similar situation shaping up for the Plains except a little further south into Kansas. My take is that eventually, if the storm is still on the models, it will move more north just because of how early in the year it is. Typically you dont see storm systems dropping snow that far south in early November so lets just wait and see what happens.

Stormy, Cold then snow?

Hi everyone, welcome to the first ever forecast discussion here on Snow Day. I will just go over briefly what I have been seeing in the models over the next week. Like I have said in my November outlook, we are looking at a stormy and cold start to November for the central and northern Plains states then transition eastward as we head into the middle part of the month. The models are bringing in one storm system already through the Ohio Valley as we speak that brought tornadoes for the deep south, but we are also getting another storm system to move through the Plains this weekend, bringing with it a cold soaking rain to parts of Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. A few wet flakes may mix in over parts of Minnesota Sunday morning. Another larger storm system looks to hit the central Plains and Ohio Valley the middle of next week, not much snow to talk about with this one either but the northern fringes might get a mix at the very end over parts of northern Nebraska and northern Iowa.

This big storm system ushers in much colder air mid to late next week with the potential for some snow over the Great Plains to the Ohio Valley! The GFS model is the model potent with the cold air, with highs in the 30s and 20s north of I-70 in the Plains states a week from now with some snow as well! It has been rather consistent with that feature but some other models are slow to catch on. Most of them at least have the cold air really building after mid next week. Stay tuned for the next discussion as we continues to talk about the cold air coming and potential snow!