Hello everyone and happy Thanksgiving once again! The latest NAM model came out and is slower and stronger and a bit further west with the significant accumulations. This places much of eastern Nebraska through eastern Iowa in the jackpot zone for significant snowfall accumulations. If this were to come to pass, high winds will also develop on the backside of the low creating blizzard conditions. Stay tuned!
Hello and happy Thanksgiving everyone! We are still tracking the potential for a winter storm to hit the central Plains this coming Sunday bringing with it biting cold and potential for BLIZZARD conditions! We are getting a bit more consistency with the computer models so we are able to at least issue a preliminary outlook on where we think the greatest potential for heavy snowfall will fall. Obviously we have a few days left for things to change and in the land of forecasting, anything can and will go wrong so please expect changes! But as of today I expect the highest potential for heavy snow to fall over southeastern Nebraska to central Iowa with a larger area seeing moderate chances for Heavy snowfall. Eastern Nebraska through central Iowa, northwestern Missouri and northeast Kansas look to see the best potential for blizzard conditions with at least 35 mph winds if not 40-50 MPH wind gusts. Will update later…
Hello and good Wednesday AKA Thanksgiving Eve everyone! It’s been a quiet last week but now we are tracking the potential for a winter storm / Blizzard to possibly hit the Great Plains states through the Great Lakes this Holiday travel weekend.
We are starting to see a little more consistency among the models. The GFS computer model hits areas of Nebraska and Iowa pretty hard :
As you can see, it has heavy snowfall falling over eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, Western and northern Iowa and southeast Minnesota with blizzard conditions over these areas as well, especially over eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.
Here is the new version of the GFS:
As you can see its pretty much the same. Here is the ICON Model:
And here is the EURO
As you can see, it is much more different and further south then any other model, which makes this one the outlier.
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Hello everyone and good Tuesday evening! I have been watching for days the potential for a winter storm to hit the northeastern and southeastern United States late Wednesday night through early Saturday morning. This is a storm system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico then turning into a Nor’Easter as it heads up the coast. We still have some cold air in place for parts of the Ohio Valley to start the storm with some heavy accumulations of snow over southeastern Missouri up north through St Louis then over southern and central Illinois to northern Indiana. Here 3-6 inches of snow may fall with isolated heavier totals. Ice looks to be a big concern as well over parts of the southeast and northeastern United States. As the system picks up steam heavy snow should fall over a larger swath of the northeastern United States on Friday. Here is the latest snow and ice accumulation maps:
Hello and happy Sunday everyone! The cold weather continues for the central Plains, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions today and yes, we are talking SNOW for Kansas, Oklahoma, parts of Texas, Missouri and parts of Arkansas. Things are really coming together for totals to be significant in some areas especially over the Texas Panhandle and northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri where 6+ inches of snow may fall. This will be a very wet snow so not much will stick to the main roads but watch out for some slushy snow on the neighborhood roads. Definitely a snow where its mostly on surfaces except concrete due to it still being very early in the season. Here is the latest model projection for tonights snow amounts:
Hello and happy Saturday everyone! We are tracking the potential for more accumulating snowfall to hit. This time from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle to parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and northeast. The latest models have been trying to back off with this system lately meaning that the further west it goes, the less snow falls over the northeast United States, also, dont really expect this to be a true Nor’Easter. But the snow over Oklahoma and parts of Kansas will be a spectacle to see since this would be more then they have seen all last winter. That just shows you how snow starved the southern Plains has been lately. This all starts tomorrow night in the southern Plains then is to Maine by next Tuesday night.
This is the EURO model:
Hello and good Wednesday evening everyone! Snow is expected tomorrow and a plowable one at that as well! This is an interesting wave of a storm, one area of snow will fall over Nebraska and another area will fall much further south over Kansas and western Missouri. The models are not handling this system very well so I wouldnt be hocked to see some last minute changes. The model I trust the most at the last minute is the NAM. And here is its official snow totals:
Hello and good Wednesday morning everyone! We are still tracking the potential for accumulating snow to hit the Plains states on Thursday and Thursday night! This is on the heels of MUCH colder weather to hit the Plains first then move eastward through the Ohio Valley later next week. Models are mostly in agreement that the heaviest snow will fall over parts of southwest and central Nebraska with a general 1-3 inches of snow over northern and western Kansas and eastern Nebraska through southern and eastern Iowa. Winds will be light with this system so no real drifting of snow is likely. Below is the GFS model’s snow projection. More updates later!
While the totals have gone down, accumulating snow is still likely over Nebraska, Kansas and parts of Missouri. The euro model is the strongest and furthest south in northern Kansas while the short range nam model is the furthest north into Nebraska with 1 to 3 over eastern Nebraska and 6 inches or more over western Nebraska. Stay tuned for more updates!
Hi everyone! And happy Sunday! Here is another update on the potential for a winter storm to hit the Great Plains this coming Thursday through Friday. This past Saturday just when you think we are starting to see a good trend develop, things start to go haywire in the models and they are all over the place. This is actually pretty normal.
Here is the GFS model’s snowfall accumulations :
As you can see, not much going on here, maybe a few inches of snow for northern Kansas. The GFS has been going back and forth for days now from either hitting ares of I70 and areas north of I70 in Nebraska and Iowa. Also, looking at the GFS ensembles, there is a lot of different solutions. I have seen several that have no storm, some that hit Nebraska and Iowa with several inches of snow and several members that hit Kansas through Missouri and eastern Iowa with snow.
Here is the latest 0z EURO model :
After a couple days of hitting Nebraska, northern Kansas and Iowa hard with heavy snow, it has shifted a bit further south into Kansas and Missouri. I guess if there is any consistency right now, It would be a more southerly track through Iowa. But my opinion is since we are still early in the season and we are in early November, this system will eventually move back north a bit. If this were in December or January, I would be buying this southerly track a bit more.